The music industry is looking ahead to the 2026 Grammy Awards, with predictions suggesting a different landscape compared to previous years. While the 2025 ceremony featured a highly competitive field of major stars, the current eligibility period, which spans from September 2024 to August 2025, has seen fewer obvious blockbuster releases. This shift opens the door for a wider range of contenders in the top categories, making this year's predictions more varied and potentially surprising.
One artist consistently mentioned as a strong front-runner is Kendrick Lamar. His recent work, including singles and the album 'GNX,' has positioned him for significant recognition. However, the absence of other clear dominant figures creates an exciting opportunity for artists like Lady Gaga, Sabrina Carpenter, and Billie Eilish to make their mark in key categories.
Key Takeaways
- Kendrick Lamar is a strong contender for multiple awards, including Album of the Year.
- Sabrina Carpenter and Lady Gaga have released critically acclaimed albums.
- Billie Eilish and Chappell Roan return with new singles.
- Best New Artist category is highly unpredictable with many emerging talents.
- Nominations will be announced on November 7.
Kendrick Lamar Dominance Expected Again
Kendrick Lamar stands out as a leading candidate for the 2026 Grammy Awards. This follows his success at the 2025 Grammys, where he secured five wins, including Song of the Year and Record of the Year for "Not Like Us." His latest releases, including new singles and the album 'GNX,' featuring the SZA duet "Luther," fall within the current eligibility window. This overlap across two eligibility periods could lead to another strong showing.
Despite his recent wins, a significant narrative around Lamar is his pursuit of an Album of the Year award. He has been nominated four times for his own albums and twice as a featured artist, but has never won in this specific category. Many in the Grammy community believe a win would acknowledge his consistent impact on hip-hop and the broader music landscape.
"Lamar's triumph will still come as good news to most Grammy veterans – they arguably have a lot of catching up to do on hip-hop, and a Lamar sweep would help put some more drops in that bucket."
Lamar's Grammy History
- 5 wins at the 2025 Grammys.
- 4 previous Album of the Year nominations for his solo albums.
- 2 additional Album of the Year nominations as a featured artist.
- He has never won Album of the Year.
Pop Stars and Unexpected Contenders
While some major pop artists like Taylor Swift and Beyoncé did not release new material during this eligibility period, other prominent names are in contention. Sabrina Carpenter, for example, released her album "Man's Best Friend" just before the August 30 deadline. This album, along with her single "Manchild," positions her as a strong candidate in top categories.
Lady Gaga is another artist generating considerable buzz. Her album "Mayhem" has received strong critical reviews, suggesting it could achieve more Grammy recognition than her previous work. Her successful U.S. tour might also sway voters, potentially leading to a surprise victory in a major category.
Eligibility Period
The eligibility period for the 2026 Grammy Awards runs from September 2024 to August 2025. This timeframe determines which music releases are considered for nomination across all categories.
Returning Artists and New Singles
Billie Eilish is eligible with her single "Wildflower," a late release from an album nominated in the previous awards cycle. Chappell Roan has submitted her non-album single "The Subway" for consideration in top categories, after releasing two singles during the eligibility period.
Other artists like Justin Bieber, with his album "Swag," and Alex Warren, with his multi-platinum single "Ordinary," are also being watched closely. Warren, in particular, represents a commercially successful newcomer who could break into the major categories.
- Sabrina Carpenter: Album "Man's Best Friend," single "Manchild."
- Lady Gaga: Album "Mayhem."
- Billie Eilish: Single "Wildflower."
- Chappell Roan: Single "The Subway."
- Justin Bieber: Album "Swag."
- Alex Warren: Single "Ordinary."
Album of the Year Predictions
The Album of the Year category is often one of the most anticipated. Kendrick Lamar's "GNX" is widely considered a front-runner. His previous albums have consistently been nominated, and "GNX" has been praised as a strong artistic step forward. However, the category also features other critically acclaimed works.
Sabrina Carpenter's "Man's Best Friend" and Lady Gaga's "Mayhem" both received positive reviews and achieved significant popular appeal. The question remains whether these two pop-leaning albums might divide votes from similar demographics. Artists like Jon Batiste and Coldplay often receive nominations in this category, making them consistent presences.
Album of the Year Contenders (Alphabetical)
- Bad Bunny, "Debí Tirar Más Fotos"
- Jon Batiste, "Big Money"
- Sabrina Carpenter, "Man's Best Friend"
- Elton John & Brandi Carlile, "Who Believes in Angels?"
- Lady Gaga, "Mayhem"
- Kendrick Lamar, "GNX"
- Laufey, "A Matter of Time"
- The Weeknd, "Hurry Up Tomorrow"
Bad Bunny's inclusion is notable, as there was controversy when his last album was not nominated. This year, a stronger push could see him return. Brandi Carlile, a recent Grammy favorite, collaborates with Elton John on an album that could also earn a nod. Laufey, though not previously nominated in this top category, has gained significant industry respect and a growing fanbase, performing in arena shows. Her blend of traditional and contemporary styles may appeal to a broad range of Grammy voters.
Notably, Morgan Wallen's highly successful album "I'm the Problem" was not submitted for consideration. Conversely, artists like The Weeknd and Drake, who have sometimes had strained relationships with the Grammys, have submitted their latest works.
Record and Song of the Year Outlook
These two categories often feature similar nominations, though Song of the Year honors songwriters, and Record of the Year recognizes artists and producers. Kendrick Lamar and SZA's duet "Luther" is a strong favorite, combining Lamar's current momentum with SZA's established appeal.
Billie Eilish's "Wildflower," despite being a late-breaking single, has garnered over 1.5 billion Spotify streams, making it a powerful contender. Many see it as a potential make-good for her previous hit "Birds of a Feather," which missed out on top awards. The year's commercial hits, Alex Warren's "Ordinary" and "Golden" from the "KPop Demon Hunters" soundtrack, are also in the mix. Their mainstream popularity could either be embraced or overlooked by Grammy voters, who have sometimes bypassed massive commercial successes in favor of more critically aligned choices.
Record and Song of the Year Contenders (Alphabetical)
- Gracie Abrams, "That's So True"
- Justin Bieber, "Daisies"
- Sabrina Carpenter, "Manchild"
- Billie Eilish, "Wildflower"
- Huntr/X, "Golden"
- Kendrick Lamar & SZA, "Luther"
- Rose & Bruno Mars, "APT."
- Alex Warren, "Ordinary"
Artists often make strategic choices about which songs to submit. Chappell Roan, for example, is reportedly submitting the broadly appealing "The Subway" over her country-influenced track "The Giver." Lady Gaga's album "Mayhem" has several strong tracks, but "Abracadabra" is a standout choice for submission.
Best New Artist: A Wide-Open Race
The Best New Artist category is notably unpredictable this year, lacking a clear front-runner. This makes it one of the most exciting categories to watch. Country music artists Ella Langley and Megan Moroney, both with multiple CMA Award nominations, are strong contenders. Their appeal extends beyond the country genre, potentially attracting a wider range of Grammy voters. Zach Top is another country artist who could also secure a spot.
The Marias present a different genre option, with a unique sound that could appeal to voters looking for something distinct. Alex Warren, with his significant commercial success, is a major wildcard. His widespread popularity could push him into the nominations, despite traditional Grammy voting patterns.
Best New Artist Contenders (Alphabetical)
- Ella Langley
- The Marias
- Megan Moroney
- Jessie Murph
- Addison Rae
- Sombr
- Alex Warren
- Lola Young
The diversity of artists in this category, spanning various genres and levels of commercial success, suggests a potentially fragmented vote. This could lead to unexpected nominees and a highly competitive final selection. The Grammy nominations are scheduled to be announced on November 7, revealing which artists will contend for the prestigious awards.